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Gunderson, Lance H --- "Resilience and transformation of agro-ecosystems in a changing climate" [2017] ELECD 502; in Angelo, Jane Mary; Du Plesis, Anél (eds), "Research Handbook on Climate Change and Agricultural Law" (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2017) 47

Book Title: Research Handbook on Climate Change and Agricultural Law

Editor(s): Angelo, Jane Mary; Du Plesis, Anél

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

ISBN (hard cover): 9781784710637

Section: Chapter 3

Section Title: Resilience and transformation of agro-ecosystems in a changing climate

Author(s): Gunderson, Lance H

Number of pages: 27

Abstract/Description:

Ongoing climate change will continue to provide surprises to agricultural ecosystems. Resilience, adaptation and transformation are models that can be used to think about how complex agro-ecosystems change over time. Resilience is an inherent property of systems that describes how complex systems respond to disturbances (such as storms, floods and droughts) and describes how systems undergo qualitative shifts in structure and function into alternative system states or regimes. Such regime shifts or transformations involve dynamics of processes operating across many nested spatial scales. Large-scale systems such as the atmosphere can influence regional patterns of climate. Climate and weather at regional scales can influence changes in agro-ecosystems at the field level, the farm level, and farming community levels. Large-scale economic processes such as globalization and world-wide delivery systems can link local production with markets half a world away. Small-scale processes such as microbial respiration in tilled or drained organic soils contribute to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Such cross-scale, nonlinear dynamics create large uncertainties in our ability to predict how these systems will respond to changes in climatic drivers. Dealing with such uncertainty will require programs that focus on understanding and learning as much or more than development of better policies, laws or programs. Moreover, such uncertainties require new and innovative trials that allow practitioners to learn and probe uncertainty. The cost of not doing so will result in a less desirable future, rather than one that may be more equitable, just and sustainable. Key Words: resilience, transformation, adaptation, climate change, agro-ecosystems